FX systems
XII · FX systems Researched

Forecast-to-fill

Smoothing → confidence → volatility-targeting → fractional-Kelly sizing with ATR exits across FX pairs.

In plain terms

A full FX pipeline that turns a price forecast into a sized, risk-managed position — from smoothing the signal through to the exit.

How it works

Smoothing produces a forecast, the forecast a confidence, confidence a volatility-targeted size scaled by a fraction of Kelly, and ATR-based exits manage the trade across several pairs.

What it’s tested against

Out-of-sample with stressed costs; the sizing chain is deliberately rule-based so there is no discretion to over-fit.

Data

FX price history across major pairs.

Researched — an end-to-end FX sizing-and-exit framework.

All strategy families

Research record only. Strategy logic stays private; what is shown can be reconstructed from a versioned notebook and a dated data snapshot. Not investment advice.